Small Conference Hoops- Show Me the Money!
With 96 College hoops game to handicap this past Saturday, I find myself as a pro handicapper sometimes overwhelmed by the great numbers of teams and stats and scenarios to look at on Friday Night as I prepare to post advice for paying customers, who count on me to make them money everyday of the week with my wares. This is a huge responsibility and one I do not take lightly, so I thought I would break down my performance to make a valid point in terms of how to thin it down to make it profitable for the novice sports bettors and wannabe handicappers who sometimes lose site of the forest because of all the trees.
Specialization is the meaningful to success- I took at a look at my 3-1 ATS performance Saturday, and thought I would point it out in terms of how one can unprotected to a 75% win rate ATS with so many games. I thin it down to 3 conferences I specialize in, and one situation I specialize in, small conference totals plays now 5-1 ATS on the year. Lets look at my lone loss, which was Texas Tech against Oklahoma getting +10.5 and they lost by 12. Close but no cigar on that one, I needed a lay-up to cover, but found that Texas Tech is one of the worst road teams in college hoops and in the Big 12, it is official. Being in the radio business both from a gaming show perspective and a straight up sports talk show perspective in Lincoln, NE, so I work with game announcers and already a national play by play announcer for ESPN Gameplan that covers the Big 12 and Mountain West on a weekly basis. This gives me some serious insight and information that cannot be found on the wire sets, a huge advantage for me!
Small conferences and mid-majors, like the Missouri Valley for example, is also a MAJOR meaningful to my success. Look at this past Saturday, 3 unbeatens, all favorites, including Duke, all were favored on the road. These games get the lions proportion of public interest and public wagering, and have no doubts, Vegas oddsmakers know it. I won with small conference plays, where the lines moved very little if at all. It is not exciting stuff, but profitable. St. Mary’s CA laying 1 point on the road in a 22 point win, San Diego State laying 7 and winning by 27 and the Over in the NC Wilmington and George Mason game, winning the over by 13 points over the spread. The line moves, side and total in those games combined was less than 3 points TOTAL! Not exciting stuff, not exciting games on TV, but with a 3-0 sweep in those games, exciting when you go to the ticket window! The lines are soft and not as sharp and are less likely to have huge swings in them before tip-off than a game involving Duke, U Conn, North Carolina and teams that attract huge numbers of wagers and public attention.
I like to fly under the radar screen and thin it down to a finite number of teams to handicap, say looking at 25-30 games max, and I’ll let the public and other cappers worry about attracting attention on marquee games. If you work a few conferences, like the Colonial or Horizon or Sun Belt as a weekly chore, you become very accustomed to home /road dichotomies in those conference’s, and win / loss scenarios and past history, of who plays who tough, no matter the situation. Knowing that St. Mary’s of California always is a tough team to beat at home, and remember in that conference, Gonzaga travels there. Just little things that are shared knowledge to those who take the time to specialize in it! Look at San Diego State, off to their best conference record ever, and playing a team who has lost all road games by double digits, and however they lay 7 and win by 27! The Aztecs rule the conference standings and have an noticeable forward that dominates in this conference, keep an eye on them.
thin it down, keep it simple and look at a few conference’s like the ones I mentioned, maybe the MAC conference, or a small mid-major and start doing your homework, it will pay dividends this Hoops season.